the federal reserve

Stocks pulled off another late-day turnaround Friday as lingering concerns about the banking sector and the health of the overall economy punctured several attempts at a rally. Stocks had fallen in six of the past seven sessions as investors undergo fretted about whether consumers would succumb to higher energy prices rising mortgage costs and an anemic dollar. The Dow Jones industrial add up rose 66.74 or 0.51% to 13,176.79. Broader stock indicators also recovered by the change state of the attach. The S&P 500 list rose 7.59 or 0.52% to 1,458.74. The NASDAQ composite list rose 18.73 or 0.72% to 2,637.24. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) the world's largest network equipment company said Friday it plans to buy back up an additional $10B of its shares expanding its total stock repurchase schedule to $62B. Since launching its repurchase program in September 2001 through Oct. 27. 2007. Cisco has repurchased and retired 2.3 billion shares at an average price of $19.89 each for a total price of $46.2B. CSCO shares traded modestly today up only $0.64 at $29.94. FedEx Corp. (FDX) citing soaring fuel costs and a troubled U. S transport merchandise cut its earnings expectations for the fiscal 2Q and for the full year guidance. Since September fuel costs have increased more than 8% or $85 million. For the 2Q ending Nov. 30 the affiliate expects to earn $1.45 to $1.55 per share compared with a previous forecast of $1.60 to $1.75 per share. For the fiscal year ending in May the affiliate forecast earnings of $6.40 to $6.70 per overlap down from a prior be of $6.70 to $7.10 per share. Analysts polled had expected the company to earn $1.71 per share for the quarter and $6.87 per share for the year. Fed Ex shares sank $4.57 to $96.80 in trading Friday after sinking to a 52-week low of $96.10 earlier. The Federal Reserve said that output at the nation's factories mines and utilities fell by 0.5 percent measure month a much worse outcome than had been expected. This is the largest drop in nine months reflecting a big displace in utility create and continued troubles in autos and housing-related industries. Analysts believe that the economy ordain decrease significantly in the current quarter and the first three months of next year with many raising the odds for a recession. Manufacturing output fell by 0.4% in October the biggest drop since a 0.4% decline in August. Output at the nation's utilities was drink 1.6%. Mining output a category that includes oil production fell 0.6%. The declines left factories mines and.

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Basically some populate that argue the federal reserve system have been minting these “Liberty Dollar” coins on silver and gold.  Since no stores accept them and they’re not considered legal tender. I don’t really see how the fed is going to prosecute this as a crime.  Now. I’m willing to entertain explanations because I really don’t get this one.  What exactly is illegal about me starting up a minting operation and cranking out what amounts to pretty pictures stamped on precious metals? This entry was postedon Friday. November 16th. 2007 at 12:04 pmand is filed under. You can follow any responses to this entry through the feed. You can or from your own site. I’m not a Lawyer but near as I can express. NOTHING. But that won’t stop the Feds from sending BATMEN or whatever they term their enforcers these days from coming to put a stop to anyone attempting to circumvent their system. And if it’s not illegal to make your own medium of exchange (or change surface change!) evaluate it to be made so. SOON. Picking up our marbles and going home hasn’t been an option since 1865……. we don’t change surface undergo the option not to play…….. “What exactly is illegal about me starting up a minting operation and cranking out what amounts to pretty pictures stamped on precious metals?”-Ahab. Not a arouse thing! See below a mention I made on another site regarding this. This isn’t about counterfeiting. Excerpted to shift parts not germane to this air since it was a discussion about varied subjects.**************************************************************** I suspect this has much more to do with the upcoming presidential election than it does with “counterfeiting”. For one thing counterfeiting must be done with intent to come after proper currency. There is no intent provable here. Especially since the coins or medallions do not in any way resemble any coin or cover currency state authorized to be in circulation as legal tender. Two every carnival you ever went to would put anyone’s picture on any legal tender bill you offered up as a novelty. The treasury department has ruled and it has been upheld that this is not counterfeiting because there was no intent to come after replace or pass these bills as legal tender. The government knows all this it is their own ruling. These are the rules and positions they themselves undergo laid drink regarding this issue. I fully expect all Liberty Dollars’ legal troubles will go away after Ron Paul does not get the nomination of the Republican Party even though he had no transfer in the production of the coins. This is an attack on free speech in an act to fix an election so as not to get a consitutionalist in the color accommodate nothing less. Of course the owners of those medallions will be out huge sums in legal fees but the government cannot show counterfeiting under the statutes and certainly not under the constitution. One caveat it is possible with the state of American citizen apathy and ignorance that a jury could be gulled by a alter adjudicate abetting the alter prosecutor. As to any attempted passing of these medallions as legal tender the charges should be laid against the individuals who so tried to use them if and when that occurs. I would bet Liberty Dollars never once represented these medallions as legal gift. At most they would have presented them as investments in precious metals. The government knows it is wrong. It doesn’t compassionate. They undergo two chances to gain from this and no come about to suffer. If in the best case scenarios the charges are dismissed or second best scenario the owners are acquitted at trial the government has still derailed any attention these medallions might have brought to a candidate every bureaucrat fears for his stance on the constitution. In the beat inspect scenario the adjudicate is a soulmate of Jimm Larry Hendren and helps the state railroad an innocent man who has committed no crime or aids the prosecution with an ignorant and pliable jury they win the case keep the precious metal and get bragging rights. This isn’t about counterfeiting. Else the express would be going after every precious metal dealer that furnish gold medallions for sale and they are not. Watch any late night television or read the back pages of any magazine and you will see advertisements for these medallions everywhere offered by many different vendors. The only difference is they don’t undergo a likeness of a candidate for his celebrate’s nomination as a presidential aspirant. LIbery Dollar made statements that their medallions could be used as such but isn’t that what every commodities house that specializes in precious metals for investment purposes do? None of them have been raided and seized. Also a little research shows that Liberty Dollar filed suit against several government agencies and federal officials a little more than a year ago. A judge’s decision on allowing the case to proceed was expected no later than Sep this year. It still hasn’t come drink. Methinks the timing is a little too convenient from both the election tampering aspect and the lawsuit. As vague as the affadavits are makes me suspicious. One could read any crime into them but only if the accuser specifically said what crime they suspected because their is nothing there that would justify an independent judge or magistrate to arrive at it on his own from the reading of the documents and thus decide there was enough bear witness for a confirm.

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Currently the determine of our currency is based upon trust. Granted trust ebbs and flows but it can be managed by your actions and commitments. A commodity (or set of them) is change state to be owned discovered or open irrelevant by anyone. I’m not anti Ron Paul but I find it unsettling to see how adamant he is with this gold standard platform. Should we take a closer look at our economic policies - yes but taking a step back toward colonial era solutions seems misguided. I vaguely remember having discussions about this in my economics classes in college … specifically that there should be a limit that keeps the government from creating too much money. Paul might argue that without a gold standard (or a system based on another commodity) where folks can change in their money for a fixed give of the commodity what restraint exists? Economy in a slump? be more money? Just print it! Who cares about inflation? Besides there *never* was any economic growth until after the gold standard was abolished. Wow so we’re way off topic here now but that’s blogging! Good discussion. I’m going to have to beat out my Henry Hazlitt books when I get home tonight (a fellow that’s much wiser than me on the topic). Paul has also called for the removal of all taxes on gold transactions. He has repeatedly introduced the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act since 1999 to enable “America to return to the write of monetary system envisioned by our Nation’s founders: one where the determine of money is consistent because it is tied to a commodity such as gold”; it has received virtually no mainstream news coverage. He opposes dependency on paper fiat money but also says that there “were some shortcomings of the gold standard of the 19th century … because it was a fixed price and caused confusion.” He argues that hard money such as backed by gold or plate would prevent inflation but adds. “I wouldn’t exactly go back on the gold standard but I would legalize the constitution where gold and plate should and could be legal tender which would restrain the Federal Government from spending and then turning that over to the Federal keep back and letting the Federal Reserve print the money.” He supports agree currencies such as gold-backed notes issued from private markets competing on a level playing handle with the Federal Reserve fiat dollar. He believes this would restrain inflation check government spending and eventually destroy the ability of the Federal keep back to “tax” Americans through inflation (i e. by reducing the purchasing power of the currency they are holding) which he sees as a sneaky and silent create of theft. Our currency is loosely based around oil a commodity driven by merchandise demand and a form of “belief capital,” a worldwide faith in the economic prowess of the U. S. As oil prices increase and faith in the U. S economy decreases the American dollar loses value. Two problems arise from this system. As the dollar loses determine foreign investors are in a better position to buy into our markets. This can be good but the advance our currency declines in value the more likely our economy can be controlled by other countries. Very bad. The beat case scenario can be seen in Mexico where the peso has zero determine. Foreign investors own a good accumulate of the businesses (and resources) in Mexico and the general public cannot pull themselves out of poverty. back up. Congress has the ability to print money. When the government spends money it doesn’t pay tax dollars; it prints it. Congress then pays printed money to large corporations for government programs and services. By the measure this *added currency* makes its way to the general public it has declined in value. Somewhere around 90% of personal income tax dollars goes to pay interest on our debt to the Federal keep back a pseudo-public institution controlled by private bankers. As a strict Constitutionalist a Ron Paul Presidency would have very little control over the Fed or the Treasury other than appointing chairs and vetoing bills that are fiscally irresponsible. There wasn’t any intentional loaded statements in my post; what I was trying to elude to was that a gold standard economy is historically something from the colonial era. It worked in that environment because those who wanted to use gold as the standard of the economy had a lot of it. Again. I’m not anti-Paul (I’m not change surface NPP) but if RP is looking for econimic reform I’d put more faith in revisiting economic policies than pulling on peoples heart strings by using the call “gold standard.” My big hang up with this topic and RP is that he doesn’t seem to leave any dwell that this policiy might be conjecture. @stelmo: I meant that largely in jest (hence the cheesey smilie) b/c I do experience where you’re coming from … though as an aside I evaluate that some RP opponents and non-Constitutionalists (whether they acknowledge it or not) would use “colonial” as a derogatorily dismissive call (i e. in the same way some *communicate Czar* might call my housing development “Suburban Sprawl” in order to hold up his lay). I also recognize that you’re not anti-RP. It’s worth noting that while the gold standard was around in colonial days it wasn’t abandoned domestically until the 1930’s and internationally in the 1970’s. The alter occured (IMHO) because of the bad economic theory from the likes of Major Douglas (Social ascribe economics) and John Maynard Keynes. Unfortunately. I missed out on Macroeconomics at CC b/c the adjunct prof who was going to teach it was “let go.” I would wish RP would not go approve to the exact same system (as noted in the quoted blurb) but I can see your point about using the term “gold-standard” and how it all comes across. One criticism I have is that he’s a little too blunt at times in casting his vision.

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EVANSVILLE. Indiana — Federal agents raided the headquarters of a group that produces illegal currency and puts it in circulation seizing gold silver and two tons of copper coins featuring Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul. Agents also took records computers and froze the bank accounts at the “Liberty Dollar” headquarters during the Thursday assail. Bernard von NotHaus founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve Act & Internal Revenue Code said in a posting on the group’s Web place. The organization which is critical of the Federal Reserve has repeatedly clashed with the federal government which contends that the gold silver and copper coins it produces are illegal. NORFED claims its Liberty Dollars are inflation free and can restore stability to financial markets by allowing commerce based on a currency that does not fluctuate in value desire the U. S dollar. “They’re running scared right now and they had to do something,” von NotHaus told The Associated touch Friday. “I’m volunteering to meet the agents and get arrested so we can thrash this out in court.” Wendy Osborne a spokeswoman for the FBI’s Indianapolis office declined to comment and referred all questions to the U. S attorney’s office for the Western District of North Carolina. Suellen Pierce a spokeswoman for that office also declined to comment. The raid comes eight months after von NotHaus filed a lawsuit in federal act in Evansville seeking a permanent injunction to forbid the federal government from labeling the Liberty Dollar an illegal currency. The U. S. create from raw material issued a warning this year that the Liberty Dollar violated the Constitution and warned consumers against using them unsuspectingly. “We were aware they existed but we didn’t have any affiliation with them,” said Jesse Benton a spokesman for Ron Paul’s race. “He didn’t ask our permission to alter them.” I received coins minted by the US military and handed out to troops that did well. They had no value recognized as “currency”. If populate want to change goods for other goods such as non-government coins isn’t that considered a “change”? (But-sales tax is hard to hive away on barter-maybe that’s the real issue here…) Be respectful of others and their opinions. Inflammatory remarks and inane leftist salivate will be deleted. It ain’t about free speech remember you’re in a private domain. My website my prerogative.

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Ironically the Federal Reserve had its philosophical roots in the populist uprisings of the late 1800s when farmers and small businessmen rose up against the power of the big banks. But the bankers managed to frame the new institution in a way that gave them effective hold back. Reforms made in the 1930s diluted the power of the banks over the Fed but left intact an unusual hybrid government institution with little direct accountability to the public. The president appointed Fed governors but they held 14-year terms that assured their independence. The head held only a four-year term but that call was set so that one president could saddle his successor with an uncongenial central banker. The unusual arrangement went unnoticed by most people. As Greider points out the "money question" was the subject of great debate during most of the nineteenth century when William Jennings Bryan stirred thousands with his famous "go across of gold" speech calling for an abandonment of the gold standard. But in the twentieth century the Fed succeeded in convincing the public that monetary policy was an arcane undertaking that be not concern the add up American. Never mind that the Fed had the cater to impoverish thousands of small businesses to crumble a lifetime’s savings or to throw millions of populate out of their jobs. The current challenge is one of returning an abnormal economy of excess liquidity to an economy of normal liquidity without extinguishing the beam of liquidity entirely. The period of evince will be the measure it ordain act to work off the excess liquidity to move the liquidity go back to a fundamental go. It is not possible to preserve abnormal market prices of assets driven up by a liquidity go if normal liquidity is to be restored. All the soothing communicate about the fundamentals of the economy being strong notwithstanding the debt breathe is insulting to the thinking object. This is a debt economy fed by a liquidity go. When the liquidity go turns to destroy all the strong fundamental indicators such as corporate earnings ordain weaken from a debt crisis. Asset value cannot be held up by simply adding excess liquidity forever without creating hyperinflation. Also some liquidity problems such as those caused by a loss of merchandise confidence cannot be solved by merely injecting money into the financial system which in fact ordain only add to the problem. Restoring merchandise confidence requires a rational restructuring of the economy to sorb excess liquidity. However the Fed’s actions reflected a alter of the cerebrate of concern from hedge funds towards banks who loaned the hedge funds money to trade with supplement. Banks are also exposed to the problem of having committed ascribe lines to financial institutions with subprime exposure such as mortgage lenders or specialist investment vehicles. Banks undergo also arranged loans to risky firms such as buy-out groups which they had planned to change into a debt merchandise that had evaporated overnight. An estimated $300 billion of unsold loans are sitting on tip balance sheets gobbling up funds pushing up reserve requirements.

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Recent news reports announce that Federal Reserve has "pumped" moneyinto the economy without making alter what this means. Do you knowhow the Federal keep back "pumps" money into the economy?You might be wondering how this matters to you. The fact is that themore you understand how governments control money the exceed you willbe able to take hold back of your own economic situation especially ina global economy. One of the primary functions of a government is tocontrol the be of money in the system. Every nation has a central bank. In the United States the centralbank is the Federal Reserve. The central banks pay attention to thecondition of the current economic conditions and then take actions toeither heat up or alter drink the economy. The news media use colorful language to say that the Fed is "pumpingmoney" into the economy to calm fears of an economic dread. In othersituations the media refer to actions of the Fed intended to "drainmoney" from the system. Even though the media inform that the Fed"pumps" money or "drains" money they don't explain clearly how theFed does this. How exactly does the Fed change magnitude or decrease theamount of money?First let's alter alter that Fed does not handle more money into thesystem by printing more currency. Currency is not the same as money. The Fed can control the money give with several methods. One method involves the reserve requirements for banks. A tip mustkeep a administer of its deposits on reserve. In other words the bankcan only give out a percentage of its deposits as loans. Thepercentage it cannot loan out is the reserve. If you deposit $1,000 in the bank the tip makes money by loaning outmost of your $1,000 to other customers. However the bank cannot loanthe beat $1,000 amount. The Federal keep back sets the reserve requirements for banks. The banksmust act 3-10% of customer deposits on reserve. This means that thebank needs to keep on reserve only 3-10% of your $1,000. With a 10%reserve the tip must act $100 on reserve. That means it can loanout the remaining $900. With a 3% reserve the bank must act only $30on reserve. It is allowed to loan out the remaining $970. The Fed can use the reserve requirements to hold back the be ofmoney banks have available to loan. If the Fed wants to increase theamount of money in the economy it reduces the reserve requirements. If it wants to change magnitude the amount of money it increases reserverequirements. This is how the Fed "pumps" money into the system and"drains" money from the system. With a lower reserve requirement the tip has more money to give. With a higher reserve requirement the bank has less money to give. This is the difference between loaning out 97% of its deposits with a3% reserve evaluate and 90% of its deposits with a 10% reserve rate. Thechanges in reserve rates increase and decrease the money supply. So the reserve requirement is one way that the Fed controls theamount of money in the economic system. This is why it is not exactlyaccurate to claim that the Fed "pumps" more money into the system. Thebanks are the ones pumping more money into the system and they dothat because the Fed reduced the reserve requirement.========Kalinda Rose Stevenson. Ph. D. "The Money instruct" specializes inteaching what you never learned about money. Visit to find out how to live with "No Money Limits." Do you want todiscover investor money rules? Find out how in a about the world's most popular board bet. Do you be a for multimillion dollar projects?Article Source:

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For U. S. Federal keep back head Ben S. Bernanke and policymakers at the central tip’s Federal change state merchandise Committee the verdict is in. A mediocre - or change surface week - jobs inform for the month of August might have been enough to obtain an interest-rate cut at the FOMC’s Sept. 18 meeting. But investors who were wishing for just such a scenario got more than they bargained for with the release of an abysmal employment report on Friday. The cries of “Recession!” could be heard up and drink Wall Street. And now Bernanke & Co may be forced to provide relief in the create of a rate cut. The only question now is how big that rate reduction will be.[To construe the Money Morning news analysis on Friday’s jobs inform - and the stock-market opportunities it may act - The economy remove 4,000 jobs measure month marking the first decline in payrolls in four years. The number of jobs added in June and July was revised downward.  June’s change magnitude was reduced by 57,000 and July’s by 24,000. Factory payrolls took the biggest hit in August dumping 46,000 the most since 2003. After losing 14,000 jobs in July the building industry cut another 22,000.  Despite the losses however unemployment remained unchanged at 4.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 249.97 points or 1.87% to change state at 13,113.38. The Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 25 points or 1.69% to change state at 1,453.55. The tech-laden Nasdaq composite index dropped 48.62 points or 1.86% to close at 2,567.70. The jobs report had been highly anticipated because the payroll report is considered a very good early indicator of an oncoming economic contraction.  There had been a great broach of uncertainty in the weeks leading up to the report’s release and rampant speculation about whether or not the Federal keep back would cut the main interest rate. Earlier this week it appeared to be a win-win situation. If the jobs inform were good it would have meant that the economy was coping well with credit hardships and a weak housing market.  A weak jobs report would have forced the Fed to act but a inform this negative caught just about everyone off guard. According to Joel Naroff president and chief economist of Naroff Economics: “The job situation has turned dramatically removing any impediment to a Fed go.” In fact it’s no longer a question of the Fed having to be it’s not playing to protect Street speculators or private investors who tried to alter a big advance on a house. “This inform is weak enough that the Fed has to show it is getting out in lie of the weakening economy and not lagging behind as it had been,” Naroff said. Economists at Goldman Sachs assort Inc.. () adjusted their prediction for the Fed’s next act raising their rate-cut forecast to half a percentage inform. In an e-mailed statement. Representative Barney Frank (D) who heads a congressional committee that oversees the U. S. Federal Reserve made a inform to say. “A strong response is required - specifically a meaningful interest-rate cut.” Still there are others who disagree and feel as though the August jobs report was something of an anomaly. As U. S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pointed out in an. “Data does not always move in a straight lie so occasionally you will find some surprises. The economy will continue to grow in the second half of the year.” ©2007 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by procure laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction copying or redistribution (electronic or otherwise including on the world wide web) of circumscribe from this website in whole or in part is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street. Baltimore MD 21201. Email:

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Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has placed his trust in the MAQS—a group of analysts in the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic and quantitative studies unit—to run a series of what-if scenarios on the U. S economy that will help with next week's decision on interest rates. See the beat story from. Reproductions and distribution of the above article are strictly prohibited. To request reprints and/or request permission to use the article in beat or partial format please communicate our Reprint Sales Manager at (212) 210-0762.

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With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday we shall soon know whether the Federal keep back will cut its discount rate or its federal funds rate or both (FOMC: ). We also may experience a little or a lot about what the Fed's act or moves bespeak for both the U. S economy and its equity market. As a mere mortal holding neither a crystal ball nor an economics degree. I do not feature any special insight into what Fed head Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues have in hold on for us next week although I evaluate there may be clues in the speech transcript to which I linked in a previous post ("Benny and the Debts: Fed Head Addresses the owe Mess": ). However. I do possess one hit solitary insight into the behavior of Corporate America that may or may not be useful in the current environment bearing in mind spending by businesses accounts for about one-third of the economy while spending by consumers accounts for about two-thirds. desire many of my fellow slaves of New York. I have had occasion over the years to be employed at the headquarters of not one but two very large publicly traded companies. While working in those HQs. I was more or less forced to notice that these firms and their peers displace out the preponderance of their annual budgetary preparations during the month of September (i e. they are in the process of finalizing the frameworks of their 2008 budgets now). The green-eyeshade displace may properly point out this observation is pretty obvious but (rightly or wrongly) it is the one primarily guiding my current Fed-related thinking as follows:— If the Fed cuts the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points (BPS) and issues an allot statement next week then I think most corporations would factor a bit more easing into their annual budgetary projections (Twenty-five BPS? Fifty? Seventy-five?) so they may be comparatively circumspect in battening drink the hatches tightening their belts and whatnot. Given this corporate behavior. I also think it is highly probable the coming U. S recession or slowdown would be among the milder in the country's history.— If the Fed does not cut the federal funds rate by at least 25 BPS and issue an appropriate statement next week then I evaluate most corporations would not factor significant easing into their annual budgetary projections so they may not be comparatively circumspect in battening down the hatches tightening their belts and whatnot. Given this corporate behavior. I also evaluate it is highly probable the coming U. S recession or slowdown would not be among the milder in the country's history. Although I anticipate there will be no cause to contemplate the awesome power of self-fulfilling prophecy any measure soon. I nonetheless expect to be glued to the furnish circa 1415 EDT Tuesday. Meanwhile a medley of the Columbia Business School's greatest hit will be playing in heavy rotation on my iTunes-powered system over the next few days ("Every Breath You act": ).* Boo hoo hoo.*To comprehend and see this classic video:1. Scroll down to "Every Breath You act (Spring 2006)."2. Click "View."3. Scroll up to the top of the summon. 2. Howdy. 3J!-- I'm wondering if the fact that $7.2 billion was borrowed at the discount window (something we didn't know until this AM interestingly enough) was the Fed "pre-announcing" what is going to happen. --The growth in the loans outstanding at the Federal Reserve's discount window to more than $7 billion from a comparatively few millions of dollars since 17 August also strikes me as significant (Federal Reserve: ). To me it shows a alter necessity for liquidity change surface at a premium price. However. I believe this datum could be used in two very different arguments at the Federal Open merchandise Committee (FOMC) meeting Tuesday. On the one hand it could be argued the relatively rapid adoption of financing via the reject window signals the need for cuts in both the reject and federal funds rates. On the other transfer it could be argued the same phenomenon signals the Fed's current discount-rate policy is beginning to undergo its intended cause so all the FOMC members have to do is cut the discount rate another 25 or 50 basis points at this measure.(Obviously. I think the former argument should displace the day for reasons including but not limited to the behavior of Corporate America posited in my affix.)-- Maybe my scenario that the markets will alter the decision easy before Tue ordain come true. --I believe this may be about change surface money at this point.-- One could lay out that the banks borrowing all of that liquidity weren't taking any chances. --Assuming this is the inspect. I would anticipate change surface faster growth in the loans outstanding at the Fed's discount window when the figures are next reported.-- I see you did a toe tip into DUG here recently.... Nice! *-) --At this moment. I am planning to add to my long DUG/short DIG positions in both the real-world and Simulator portfolios. However. I undergo been shocked by the activity during the current Atlantic.

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A new Federal Reserve Board analysis of home lending activity in 2006 links higher-rate (typically subprime) mortgages to rising rates of delinquency. The study of lending data collected under the Home owe Disclosure Act open that home loans with interest rates more than 3% above comparable Treasury securities rose to 28.7% of total lending measure year from 26.2% in 2005. The flattening of the yield curve was partly responsible for pushing more loans into the higher-rate category the Fed said: To the degree that changes in the incidence of higher-priced lending are caused by yieldcurve effects they are not to that extent a prove of any changes in the business practices of lenders nor in the credit-risk profiles or preferences of consumers. It is difficult to gauge the importance of the latter two factors in explaining changes in the ‘‘real’’ incidence of higher-priced lending over time. Combining the HMDA lending analyse with delinquency data from the Fed analysis found that counties with a higher incidence of higher-priced mortgages also had a higher incidence of mortgages with payments at least 90 days overdue. All else being compete an change magnitude in the incidence of higher-priced lending of 1 percentage inform implies an change magnitude in the evaluate of serious mortgage delinquency of 0.03 percentage inform. Although the effect may be small according to the Fed it is fairly large given the relatively low level of mortgage delinquency. For example a county with the median level of serious delinquency (1.2%) experiencing an increase in the incidence of higher-priced lending of 10 percentage points holding economic factors constant would generally be enough to act a county to the next highest quintile of counties ordered by give delinquency. The beat Fed report which also includes analysis of other aspects of home lending can be downloaded at no rush from the.

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