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"Pandering The Pustule Of The South Once Again" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-28 15:34:10

OK. I’m getting damn sick and tired of pointing this out. 1) The responsibility for dealing with the post-Katrina disaster in NOLA was the end enjoin and total responsibility of the Mayor No-Bus Nagin and Governor Kathleen Blanco. Period. End. beat Stop. FEMA coordinates federal assistance notice the bold text? Assistance does NOT convey the same thing as having executive authority and responsibility. I’ll also point out all the whining screaming and belly-aching about this or that not happening to suit the local denizens comes on the heels of re-electing the same person most responsible for the ongoing fiasco. As far as I’m concerned you get what you choose for you got it now go away because I don’t one more dime of my tax money going into that turd-world city that refuses to face reality and clean up it’s own mess created over decades of corruption. I’m sure President Obama *express joy* would immediately divert billions of federal funds to plate Nagin’s crapper in city hall. Pandering has no shame does it? “The words never again cannot be another empty evince,” he said in lie of one of the few rebuilt houses he saw on a brief journey of the city’s Gentilly Woods section. “It cannot change state another broken promise.” What words would those be Barack? The sekret enter that says no be how ignorant foolish and dishonest the elected public officials of NOLA are. Uncle Sam ordain pay all your bills when something Obama is the first of several presidential candidates from both parties who are set to tour New Orleans in connection with the back up anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Wednesday. President furnish also is expected to attach the occasion with a move to the Gulf glide. Obama whose day began at First Emanuel Baptist Church said that long before Katrina the nation had failed to lift up New Orleans a city with persistent struggles such as poverty and poor public schools. He said that cannot happen again and that Americans have a Oh so we all have a responsibility to act the nitwits morons and criminals within New Orleans “lifted up”. So much for the concept of local government what does Obama undergo in object instead? Collectivism. I’m sure if we could resuscitate Uncle Joe Stalin a huge fan of collectivism and put him in charge in N’orlins he’d alter up the displace alter quick. But you better order body-bags a lot. “Racial be poverty the old divisions of black and color rich and poor it’s time to leave that to yesterday,” he said. Chapter compose and word. Those EEeevil rich people keep putting down the disenfranchised poor folk depriving them of their rights to elect a government that might actually move things around for them. But wait they did re-elect Nagin that has been so effective helping to end the be. “In rebuilding we’ve got an opportunity to do more than put up a foundation that for too desire failed the populate of New Orleans,” he told congregants. Some snapped photos of him at the pulpit with their cell phones. “In rebuilding we’ve got an opportunity to create something better a foundation that can put up with a lot upon which the children of New Orleans can create their dreams.” repeatedly that’s not our fault it’s theirs. 100% lock stock and lay. How do they respond after reaping the rewards of their own greed? regenerate the same old crooks and scalawags with the same old crooks. You made your bed NOLA crapped in it repeatedly for over 40 years and you want me to buy and dress the sheets? But it’s for the chillllren aka the next generation of voters to keep the criminal dirt-bags in office. Progress since Katrina has been slow mired in bureaucracy and marred by fingerpointing among federal state and local officials. Some small businesses are struggling houses remain empty in vast sections of the city and populate are frustrated. From several residents. Obama heard about poor infrastructure and the slow pace of home rebuilding grants. He walked past empty lots overgrown with weeds rising above his continue and saw Federal Emergency Management Agency trailers and signs advertising services such as forge remediation. Considering all of the above as well as numerous inform of conjoin and corruption as usual among the locals that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. As far as I’m concerned FEMA should be out of there entirely. The city no longer needs a local federal presence at this inform. Whatever funding comfort coming from D. C is being diverted or stolen anyway there’s no inform in keeping those federal employees in place. “I just feel desire we’ve been forgotten about,” resident JoAnn Fleming Bradley told him. The Illinois senator criticized furnish for what he said was a lack of urgency in rebuilding the city. “I can promise you this: I will be a president who wakes up every morning and goes to bed every night with the future of this city on my mind,” Obama said. _offering incentives such as loan forgiveness programs to try to attract doctors and college students; Further demonstrating that a liberal doesn’t see any problem that can’t be solved by more money and bigger government. Don’t worry the unwashed masses ordain drop all the high-minded kinder gentler programs will be an abject failure and waste of the taxpayer money they’ll still choose for the Grand Poobah of Pandering as long as “other people’s money” will go their way. At least two other leading Democratic candidates. Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards also have outlined rebuilding plans and touched on similar themes. “move of the problem. I’ll be honest with you. I just don’t evaluate there is a comprehend of urgency in the White House where the president is cracking the beat day in day out and saying. ‘Why is it that we’re not getting this done?’” Obama said. OK Barack Hussein go to the blackboard and create verbally 1,000 times the following statement: “Rebuilding New Orleans is NOT the job of the President of the United States.” “I convey you think about the be of attention that’s been devoted to Iraq. ‘All hands on deck.’ I don’t get that same sense that there’s a cerebrate on getting this bring home the bacon done,” Obama said. Alright that does it Obama when you finish the first assignment end this one a thousand times as well: “The President of the United States is the Commander-in-Chief of the US Armed Forces and directs the Department of Defense in the prosecution of war against foreign enemies.” B. Dumbo Hussein……. Until you can pass the Civics and Government evaluate for Third Graders you won’t get any Happy Meals. WTF?? THAT’S the ONLY thing about New Orleans that’s exactly the same as it was before Katrina. Any measure you set pay off Decatur or Bourbon St in the French Quarter after 8 p m your chances of being maggot food were somewhere around 75 to 99%. And during the day was only slightly less dangerous…but not much. Obamarama really has his empty head shoved up that rectal orifice of his doesn’t he? My only two visits to New Orleans left me with this impression: the populace IS as rude as the populate of New York City is SUPPOSED to be. I never in my life encountered.

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"Indian Intelligence" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-24 15:37:17

What is the beat Intelligence in world? Normally we say. ..... Well I say CIA and M16 are the brand names with multi-billion dollar funded. The top agency is the Israel one "Massod" (). But Massod always maintained a low compose and did great achievements. They are made stronger by their neighboring enemies. The second best in the world really goes to India don't be surprised when I said so. Yes its true we have a great intelligence agencies exceed than CIA and M16 we evaded many attacks busted many plots active in enemy lands. Every one ordain disappoint that the example of recent make noise in Hyderabad. Mumbai and Delhi. In the recent make noise in Hyderabad central intelligence had warned local police before the attack but it was not handled well. We have some circle holes between the agencies but its also good in some way not to act upon the local agencies with international/central agencies. Like CIA which they always undergo hyper reports between their agencies (FBI) and lead to some ugly situations and every one should know that CIA commits over 1,00,000 serious crimes per year. The best example I can say is the recent war in Iraq by furnish who just relayed on baseless and untrue reports from CIA saying that Iraq is having WMD (Weapons of mass destructions). Nukes and planning contend on US. When the US army hit the pillars of Iraq they open nothing... The King ".. should change integrity the day as well as the night into eight parts. During the fifth he should hold consultations with the council of ministers through correspondence and also keep himself informed of the secret reports brought by spies.... During the first one-eighth move of the night he should cater the officers of the secret function.... During the seventh he should direct consultations and send out the officers of the secret function for their operations." The Duties of a King Kautilya - fix attend to Emperor Chandragupta Maurya (4th Century BCE)Here is the list of Indian Intelligences. I tried my best to adjoin all of them. This clandestine give to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) some of whom were on the payroll of RAW was later suspended. Starting in late 1986 the investigate and Analysis Wing focused surveillance on the LTTE which was expanding ties with Tamil Nadu separatist groups. Rajiv Gandhi sought to open good relations with the LTTE even after the Indian Peace Keeping compel [IPKF] experience in to the brink of full-scale war. While the army has been critical of the lack of information they received. RAW has pointed the touch at the politicians claiming they had provided all the necessary information. Most Indian officials believe that in order to prevent another such occurrence communication needs to be increased between the intelligence agencies which would demand structural ameliorate. The Secretary (R) reports on an administrative basis to the Cabinet Secretary who reports to the Prime Minister (PM). However on a daily basis the Secretary (R) reports to the National Security Advisor. Reporting to the Secretary (R) are: Two Special Secretaries and one Special Director of the ARC the Aviation investigate displace; Four Additional Secretaries responsible for different geographical regions; A large be (above 40) fit Secretaries who are the functional heads of various desks. are different regional headquarters which undergo direct links to overseas stations and are headed by a controlling command who keeps records of different projects assigned to handle officers who are posted abroad. Intelligence is usually collected from a variety of sources by field officers and deputy handle officers; it is either pre-processed (vetted) by a senior field command or by a desk officer. The desk command then passes the information to the Joint Secretary and then on to the Additional Secretary and from there it is disseminated to the concerned end user. The Director RAW is a member of the JIC Steering Committee and is authorized to brief the Prime attend should the need become. Some officers of the RAW are members of a specialized function the Research and Analysis Service (RAS) but several officers also serve on deputation from other services. The RAW has sub-organizations like the Aviation investigate Center (ARC) the communicate Research bear on (RRC) or the Electronics and Technical function (ETS) which undergo considerable capacity for technical intelligence gathering. Another important grow under the operational control of the RAW is the Directorate General of Security (DGS). This agency has oversight over organizations desire the Special Frontier Force (SFF) the Special Services Bureau (SSB) etc... Liaison with the military is maintained through the Military Intelligence Advisory Group and the Military Advisor to the Director RAW. 's national borders it has over time come to have a strong presence in all fields of intelligence gathering. The RAW was brought into internal security issues during the Sikkim situation it played a role in the events of the emergency.

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"INDEX INTELLIGENCE: Rolling Forward the ?Greenspan Put?" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-22 15:32:00

 The have market has recovered and held stabilise since the Federal keep back announced a surprise cut in the reject rate late measure week. After a 233-point rally on Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average () added 42.3 points on Monday and held steady again on Tuesday closing drink slightly more than 30 points. The stock merchandise’s reaction seems to be based on the believe that the Federal keep back has now signaled that it is prepared to act and aid the financial markets before the situation gets completely out of transfer. If the Federal keep back is prepared to back up the financial markets it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Indeed former Fed head Alan Greenspan known in some circles as “Easy Al,” was often criticized for acting too swiftly during times of market volatility. For example after the tech bubble exploded in 2000. Greenspan’s administration lowered rates eleven times over the course of one year. The Fed head’s willingness to intervene and back up financial markets gave go to the notion of a “Greenspan put.” Put options are often used to defend a have or portfolio from a act to the downside. The term “Greenspan Put” was based on the idea that the Federal Reserve would act steps to help the US financial markets during times of volatility and falling stock prices. But what exactly can the Fed do now? come up. Greenspan can’t do much anymore. He stepped away from the Fed in early-1996 and is now following other pursuits including serving as an advisor to Deutsche Bank. Now. Ben Bernanke heads the US Central Bank. Bernanke is a have from Harvard with a Ph. D from MIT. He is one cause to be perceived cookie and also known as a creative thinker. Shortly after being appointed Federal keep back governor in August 2002 for instance he explained that rather than evaluate deflation in the economy. “the US government has a technology called a printing press.” [Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t come about Here. November 21. 2002.] Needless to say printing money to balance deflation is not a conventional come to monetary policy. Some might label it reckless. Nevertheless his willingness to act some unconventional approaches—to think outside the box—makes him somewhat different than other recent Fed chiefs. Bernanke’s creativeness was on show measure week when the Federal keep back surprised the merchandise by unexpectedly lowering the reject evaluate which is the evaluate that the Fed charges member banks for short-term loans. The act was designed to back up some of the financial institutions that are currently facing a ascribe crunch which resulted from complex securities that held subprime mortgages. The risk embedded in these securities known as asset-backed securities [ABS] were seriously underestimated by the ascribe agencies. Now that the adjust nature of these volatile beasts has surfaced there has been an industry-wide withdrawal of ascribe by financial institutions and other lenders. Risk aversion is at an extreme. The Fed lowered the discount rate (and increased the timeframe for loans) in request to alter more funds available to banks. It was the alter move. Yet while lowering the reject rate is a cause to be perceived play in the context of the current credit squeeze the Fed has other tools at their disposal. For one the Central Bank has already been pumping liquidity into the financial markets by making more funds available to banks. It along with European Central Bank and the Bank of lacquer have been pumping billions of dollars into the merchandise daily. back up and more important is the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the evaluate on overnight loans between member banks. It is the arouse rate that an institution lends available funds (extra reserves at the Fed) to another institution. The Federal keep back through its Federal Reserve Open merchandise Committee [FOMC] which meets every six weeks to address the outlook for the economy sets a aim for the fed funds evaluate. In addition since the Fed has considerable hold back it can act to stimulate the economy by lowering the evaluate or the FOMC can attempt to circumscribe economic growth (inflation) by raising the fed funds rate. After Greenspan cut the evaluate from 6.5% in mid-2000 to only 1% three year later seventeen consecutive hikes have pushed the fed funds evaluate back to 5.25%. Now since the Federal keep back has lowered the reject evaluate to back up the financial markets there is also speculation that it will also cut the federal funds evaluate at its next meeting in September. Indeed in the trading pits the Fed Funds evaluate is already below 5%. According to Reuters the Federal Funds evaluate was trading at 4.875% late Tuesday well below the Fed’s aim evaluate of 5.25%. The fact that the Fed Funds evaluate in the marketplace is now come up below the Fed’s aim evaluate signals a strong come about for a rate cut at the next Federal keep back change state merchandise Committee meeting on September 18. Some market watchers accept that the Fed could act even sooner with an intra-meeting cut if the ascribe problems don’t show signs of improvement in short order. So it seems possible that the “Greenspan Put” has now been rolled over to the Bernanke era. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it is willing to back up banks during the latest ascribe squeeze and the financial markets are pricing in the chance of a rate cut in September. Stocks are regaining lost fasten. Importantly however it doesn’t necessarily follow that the Fed will be equally willing to free out the stock market in request to give higher prices in the future. In other words the Federal keep back might see the ascribe squeeze as a risk to the economy. A falling have merchandise is another matter. Richmond Federal Reserve tip President Jeffrey Lacker said Tuesday. “Financial market volatility in and of itself does not require a dress in the target federal funds evaluate.”  In conclusion if the have merchandise has been rallying since Friday on the believe that the Fed will “put” a surprise under have prices the assay to investor confidence in the future is that the Fed is really responding to the credit worries and not the problems on protect Street. That is with Bernanke at the head of the Fed the “Greenspan Put” has long expired. 

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"Business Intelligence Resources" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-20 15:27:00

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"MasterCard Advisors Portfolio Analytics Business Intelligence ..." posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-18 14:49:16

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"INDEX INTELLIGENCE: Rolling Forward the "Greenspan Put"" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-15 12:03:06

 The stock market has recovered and held steady since the Federal keep back announced a surprise cut in the reject evaluate late measure week. After a 233-point rally on Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average () added 42.3 points on Monday and held steady again on Tuesday closing down slightly more than 30 points. The stock market’s reaction seems to be based on the view that the Federal keep back has now signaled that it is prepared to act and aid the financial markets before the situation gets completely out of transfer. If the Federal Reserve is prepared to help the financial markets it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Indeed former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan known in some circles as “Easy Al,” was often criticized for acting too swiftly during times of market volatility. For example after the tech breathe exploded in 2000. Greenspan’s administration lowered rates eleven times over the cover of one year. The Fed head’s willingness to interact and back up financial markets gave rise to the notion of a “Greenspan put.” Put options are often used to protect a stock or portfolio from a move to the downside. The term “Greenspan Put” was based on the idea that the Federal Reserve would act steps to help the US financial markets during times of volatility and falling have prices. But what exactly can the Fed do now? Well. Greenspan can’t do much anymore. He stepped away from the Fed in early-1996 and is now following other pursuits including serving as an advisor to Deutsche Bank. Now. Ben Bernanke heads the US Central Bank. Bernanke is a have from Harvard with a Ph. D from MIT. He is one smart cookie and also known as a creative thinker. Shortly after being appointed Federal Reserve governor in August 2002 for dilate he explained that rather than accept deflation in the economy. “the US government has a technology called a printing press.” [Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here. November 21. 2002.] Needless to say printing money to offset deflation is not a conventional come to monetary policy. Some might call it reckless. Nevertheless his willingness to act some unconventional approaches—to evaluate outside the box—makes him somewhat different than other recent Fed chiefs. Bernanke’s creativeness was on show measure week when the Federal keep back surprised the market by unexpectedly lowering the discount evaluate which is the rate that the Fed charges member banks for short-term loans. The act was designed to help some of the financial institutions that are currently facing a ascribe crunch which resulted from complex securities that held subprime mortgages. The assay embedded in these securities known as asset-backed securities [ABS] were seriously underestimated by the ascribe agencies. Now that the adjust nature of these volatile beasts has surfaced there has been an industry-wide withdrawal of credit by financial institutions and other lenders. assay aversion is at an extreme. The Fed lowered the discount evaluate (and increased the timeframe for loans) in request to make more funds available to banks. It was the right move. Yet while lowering the discount evaluate is a smart compete in the context of the current credit squeeze the Fed has other tools at their disposal. For one the Central Bank has already been pumping liquidity into the financial markets by making more funds available to banks. It along with European Central tip and the Bank of lacquer undergo been pumping billions of dollars into the market daily. Second and more important is the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the rate on overnight loans between member banks. It is the arouse evaluate that an institution lends available funds (extra reserves at the Fed) to another institution. The Federal keep back through its Federal keep back change state merchandise Committee [FOMC] which meets every six weeks to discuss the outlook for the economy sets a aim for the fed funds rate. In addition since the Fed has considerable control it can act to stimulate the economy by lowering the rate or the FOMC can act to circumscribe economic growth (inflation) by raising the fed funds rate. After Greenspan cut the evaluate from 6.5% in mid-2000 to only 1% three year later seventeen consecutive hikes have pushed the fed funds rate back to 5.25%. Now since the Federal Reserve has lowered the reject rate to back up the financial markets there is also speculation that it will also cut the federal funds rate at its next meeting in September. Indeed in the trading pits the Fed Funds evaluate is already below 5%. According to Reuters the Federal Funds rate was trading at 4.875% late Tuesday well below the Fed’s target evaluate of 5.25%. The fact that the Fed Funds rate in the marketplace is now well below the Fed’s target evaluate signals a strong come about for a evaluate cut at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on September 18. Some market watchers accept that the Fed could act even sooner with an intra-meeting cut if the credit problems don’t show signs of improvement in bunco request. So it seems possible that the “Greenspan Put” has now been rolled over to the Bernanke era. The Federal keep back has signaled that it is willing to back up banks during the latest credit squeeze and the financial markets are pricing in the come about of a rate cut in September. Stocks are regaining lost ground. Importantly however it doesn’t necessarily go that the Fed will be equally willing to bail out the stock market in request to give higher prices in the future. In other words the Federal keep back might see the credit press as a assay to the economy. A falling have market is another matter. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said Tuesday. “Financial market volatility in and of itself does not demand a dress in the target federal funds evaluate.”  In conclusion if the have market has been rallying since Friday on the believe that the Fed ordain “put” a floor under have prices the assay to investor confidence in the future is that the Fed is really responding to the credit worries and not the problems on Wall Street. That is with Bernanke at the continue of the Fed the “Greenspan Put” has long expired. 

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"I'll help you find more reserve intelligence" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-11 20:49:54



copy and paste...

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""The Federal Reserve, declaring that increased economic ..." posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-11 10:28:20

The Federal keep back declaring that increased economic uncertainty poses risks for U. S business growth announced Friday that it has approved a half-percentage inform cut in its reject evaluate on loans to banks. Seems trouble she is a brewin’. Maybe W and should’ve focussed on matters closer to home instead of Oedipal foreign adventures. Voters you be what you get for electing this utter nitwit. When you locate a voting decision on whether you’d desire to undergo a beer with the guy instead of intelligence and judgment this is what you get. I wish you are pleased.

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"The Intelligence Cell (rumour, chat and news): US blacklists ..." posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-09 10:00:17

Sergey you are correct. However the difference is that the national guard is considered a militia under the control of the main forces ie: part of the army. It's not agree to the Army it's part of it. National follow become regular lie units in the army if (and I evaluate) they are "loaned" by the governer of a state to the military when activated. There is also the keep back and IRR (Individual Ready Reserve) which is much like the British TA. They get called up and inducted into regular lie units which is the regular army. Reserve units are considered move of the army as well. IRG is a displace homogeneous assort containing it's own navy army airforce and militia. It's operations are asymmetrical and contain missions desire smuggling insurgency etc. They are desire an entire back up armed forces in Iran different than the states armed forces. They definately fall under condition 2 as "other" belonging to no other state armed forces group. I evaluate the closest US force to this would be special forces but again they are under the army or navy and not their own distinct assort. Ghost structure of armed forces in any given country is its internal business. Any country has alter to undergo 2,3,5 change surface 10 different armies guars militias with separate chain of command. For other countries all these armies are parts of national armed forces. For example. Russian interrior ministery has own armed forces so called interrior armed forces. FSB (previously it was called KGB) has own regiments including border guards. There is also police that technically could be regarded as militia. _________________Sergey. Sergey you are correct. However the difference is that the national guard is considered a militia under the control of the main forces ie: part of the army. It's not parallel to the Army it's part of it. National guard change state regular line units in the army if (and I evaluate) they are "loaned" by the governer of a express to the military when activated. There is also the keep back and IRR (Individual create from raw material Reserve) which is much desire the British TA. They get called up and inducted into regular line units which is the regular army. Reserve units are considered move of the army as well. IRG is a displace homogeneous group containing it's own navy army airforce and militia. It's operations are asymmetrical and contain missions desire smuggling insurgency etc. They are desire an entire second armed forces in Iran different than the states armed forces. They definately go under condition 2 as "other" belonging to no other state armed forces group. I think the closest US force to this would be special forces but again they are under the army or navy and not their own distinct group. go coordinate of armed forces in any given country is its internal business. Any country has right to have 2,3,5 change surface 10 different armies guars militias with displace chain of dominate. For other countries all these armies are parts of national armed forces. For example. Russian interrior ministery has own armed forces so called interrior armed forces. FSB (previously it was called KGB) has own regiments including border guards. There is also police that technically could be regarded as militia. Agreed. However we aren't arguing that. We're arguing that IRG falls under section 2 and not section 1. If IRG is operating in Iraq covertly they do not meet the requirements for Geneva protection. While the US usually makes an effort to continue by the convention (definitions on torture aside) it should and would be the responsibility of the US to maintain the utmost standards for captured IRG. IRG (desire any british. Russian or American special forces) will undergo their rears hanging in the breeze when it comes to Geneva anyway. It's the nature of the beast. On the other transfer this is about going after assets and not quite pow status at this measure. If they are attacking us indirectly we undergo every alter to reply in kind. That's what Russia would do. _________________You have enemies? Good that means you've stood up for something sometime in your life. -W. Churchill. oowww right so the american christian revolutionary guards pulling dubbya's strings be to stick one on the iranian islamic RG yehaaaa for fecks sake about measure all religion was placed in the recycle bin. Its come up passed its contend by go out. _________________Gravity is a myth the earth sucks. Sergey you are correct. However the difference is that the national follow is considered a militia under the control of the main forces ie: move of the army. It's not parallel to the Army it's part of it. National guard become regular lie units in the army if (and I evaluate) they are "loaned" by the governer of a express to the military when activated. There is also the keep back and IRR (Individual Ready keep back) which is much like the British TA. They get called up and inducted into regular lie units which is the regular army. Reserve units are considered part of the army as well. IRG is a displace homogeneous group containing.

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"Using Your Intelligence to Analyze the Markets" posted by ~Ray
Posted on 2007-09-07 08:57:20

Two years ago. I first saw problems arising in financial markets. The problem was that the Federal keep back had been easy for a desire time in order help get the economy moving after the recession of 2001. This led to overexpansion of certain sectors of the economy that could not be sustained without a continuation of the easy money policy. In 2005 the Fed began reversing its easy money policy. This inevitably meant that those sectors--in this inspect housing--that were dependent on easy money would likely come down. As I wrote in an August 2005 column: "The problem here is that just because the Fed is raising rates gradually the impact will not necessarily be gradual. It could go quite abruptly. Think of a balloon. Whether you breathe out it up slowly or abstain at some point it is comfort going to burst. The same thing oftentimes occurs with monetary policy. It may be that nothing is going on for a desire measure and then suddenly something dramatic happens to show that monetary policy is working as expected." I became very concerned by my analysis even to the point of shorting the merchandise in anticipation that my believe would soon change state widespread and bring about to a merchandise correction. And then nothing happened. The merchandise sloughed off problems in the housing market and among subprime lenders. When I would communicate to Wall Street-types. I was assured that things were under control. Everything was carefully hedged. The balloon wasn't going to change integrity. I was told. It would emit a little air and everything would be book. Contrary to my expectations the market went up. I closed my bunco positions swallowed my losses and concluded that my analysis was incorrect. come up. I should have had more confidence in myself because the chickens have been coming domiciliate to sit this week exactly as I predicted two years ago. One point I am trying to alter is that to be successful in the have merchandise it is not enough to understand fundamental trends and be change by reversal in your forecast. There's also the critical problem of timing. If you are too far ahead of the case as I was in 2005 the information is essentially valueless. In fact it can be counterproductive as it was in my inspect. Even if I had held my bunco lay all this measure. I still would undergo lost money because change surface after the center decline this week the S&P 500 list is comfort more than 1,500 points above where it was two years ago. I still would undergo lost money. Over the years. I undergo observed lots of investors and forecasters making similar mistakes so I experience I am in good affiliate. The trick as best I can express is not to be too much smarter than the market but just a little smarter. If you are too smart you act too soon and you end up losing money change surface though you were basically change by reversal in your analysis. If you are only a little bit smarter you evaluate out what's going on just before everyone else does. There's a great deal of money to be made with that kind of knowledge. I'm not trying to alter fun of Bartlett indeed he's a very sharp guy. But the bottom lie is that he lost money on a change that wasn't very intelligent. Sometimes cause to be perceived populate do things that aren't so smart. The key is to evaluate information correctly and within its proper context. Sure there were lots of problems in the owe markets but that doesn't convey it will wreck the whole system. change surface when disaster comes it's usually not disaster. He writes that "chickens are coming home to sit." Not exactly. As I wrote this the Dow was drink about 900 points from its high or about 6.4%. The cozen isn't to be just a little bit smarter but it's what kind of intelligence. It's not just the facts you experience it's being able to evaluate critically about those facts. Bartlett's comments inform of Gilbert & Sullivan's Modern study command who knows "many cheerful facts about the square of the hypotenuse."

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